Results

The following maps of Sweden shows the result of the simulations of a few different scenarios. The bottom row shows a mild disease scenario and the top row a severe one. The columns from left to right is the imposed travel restrictions. In the left most we have no restrictions, followed by a 50km ban and then a 20km ban. Trips longed than the placed distance restrictions are canceled. The second figure shows the travel intensity map as on the first page, and with the restrictions in place.

Each map represent an average of 1000 simulations. Based on the randomness of the model, the darts and dice of the Markov chain, different results are achieved. Sometimes the epidemic, due to random circumstances, die out. Other times the epidemic takes of. The maps show the number of infectious in each municipality, on average, after 60 simulated days. Each run takes about 10 minutes to complete on a standard PC, depending on the severeness of the disease.
If you would like to see examples of what a run looks like, download the videos, following the links to the right.

A view of the travel intensities with travel restriction applied. As can be seen the restrictions cause more reduction in travel intensity than may be expected, but the heaviest trffic remains, that between neighboring communities which ofcourse includes commuter traffic.

This is the main result from the simulations. It shows the spread in Sweden for the travel restrictions (across) and different severity (down). What's important to note is that despite severity, travel restrictions seem to work. Looking at a 'normal' epdiemic (middle row), some 77000 are infectious after 60 days. About 300000 people have been infected at some time during the outbreak. Imposing travel restrictions at the 50km level (centre map) reduces these figures to 37000 and 155000 respectively. The next level of restrictions brings us down even further, to 15000 and 64000 (middle row, right map).

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